How accurate is Hachi?
Hachi makes predictions and then checks them against what actually happened. The whole record is here — the ones we got right, the ones we got wrong, and the ones the evidence can't settle yet.
Two honest caveats. First, almost every graded call so far is from the IDEA.L archive Hachi grew out of; Hachi's own weekly calls started persisting in October 2026 and the first of them are graded six weeks later. Second, only near- and short-term predictions are old enough to have been checked. Medium-term calls become eligible in 2027, long-term in 2030. The number above is a story about short-horizon calls — by design, not by cherry-picking.
Where the record comes from.
Each prediction is tagged with a time horizon. Only the matured ones can be checked.
When Hachi says 70%, how often is it right?
Since October 2026 every Hachi call carries a stated conviction — the engine's own probability, written down at prediction time and never touched afterwards. Grouped into bands, this is the share that ended up confirmed in each. A well-calibrated forecaster's bars climb with the bands.
Nothing to show yet, on purpose. The first calls with a stated conviction were made in October 2026; near-term ones are graded six weeks later. This chart fills in as they resolve — we won't backfill it from anything softer.
The most recent verdicts.
- — Inconclusive Siri's Gemini Integration: Tech Surge 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive AI Investment Bubble Concerns Escalate 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive Government Shutdown Disrupts Air Travel 5 Nov 2026
- ✓ Confirmed ESIM-Only iPhone Adoption Accelerates 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive Nasdaq Inc. Shows Signs of Stability 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive Labor Day Sales Drive Tech Consumption 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive CHIPS Act Funding Uncertainty Resolved 5 Nov 2026
- — Inconclusive Financial Services: Talent Migration 4 Nov 2026
Most prediction shops only show you the calls they got right. We show you all of them.