How accurate is Hachi?
Hachi makes predictions and then checks them against what actually happened. The whole record is here — the ones we got right, the ones we got wrong, and the ones the evidence can't settle yet.
One honest caveat. Only short-term predictions (6 months) are old enough to have been checked against the news so far. Medium-term calls become eligible to validate in 2027, long-term in 2030. So this accuracy number is, for now, a story about our short-horizon calls — by design, not by cherry-picking.
Where the record comes from.
Each prediction is tagged with a time horizon. Only the matured ones can be checked.
Does our conviction line up with reality?
When Hachi checks a prediction, it records how strongly the evidence pointed one way — a conviction score from 0 to 100. Grouped into bands, here's the share that ended up confirmed in each. Higher conviction should mean a higher confirmed rate.
A note on method: this conviction score is a single axis that also encodes the verdict, so it's a measure of internal coherence, not an independent forecast probability. We show it because it's honest about how we score — not to dress up the numbers. Across the 476 decided calls, the Brier score is 0.082 (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
The most recent verdicts.
- — Inconclusive AI Content Risks Political Stability 10 Jul 2026
- ✓ Confirmed Wayve Challenges Tesla's Self-Driving Dominance 10 Jul 2026
- — Inconclusive Media and Retail Outperform Tech 10 Jul 2026
- — Inconclusive Media and Retail Outperforming Tech 10 Jul 2026
- — Inconclusive AI-Driven Political Polarization Mitigation 10 Jul 2026
- ✗ Contradicted Dollar Strength Impacts Tech Earnings 10 Jul 2026
- — Inconclusive Omni QLED TV Sales Surge 10 Jul 2026
- ✗ Contradicted Android's Speed Boost: Qualcomm's Advantage 9 Jul 2026
Most prediction shops only show you the calls they got right. We show you all of them.